Monopolistic Competition and International Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence

In this paper, we test some propositions about international trade flows that are derived from a model of monopolistic competition developed by Elhanan Helpman. We investigate whether the volume of trade between OECD countries is consistent with the predictions of a modal in which all trade is intra-industry trade in differentiated products. We then repeat the test with non-OECD countries. We also investigate whether the share of intra-industry trade is consistent with a more general theoretical model in which some, but not all, trade is intra-industry trade. Our results lead us to question the apparent empirical success of these models.

Explaining Home Bias in Consumption: The Role of Intermediate Input Trade

We show that 'home bias' in trade patterns will arise endogenously due to the co-location decisions of intermediate and final goods producers. Our model identifies four implications of home bias arising out of specialized industrial demands. Regions absorb different bundles of goods. Buyers and sellers of intermediate goods co-locate. Intermediate input trade is highly localized. The effect of spatial frictions on trade are magnified. These implications are examined and confirmed using a unique data source that matches the detailed subnational geography of shipments to the characteristics of the shipping establishments. Our results broaden the measurement and interpretation of home bias, and provide new evidence on the role of intermediate inputs in concentrating production.

Intra-national Home Bias: Some Explanations

Wolf (2000) demonstrates that trade within the U.S. appears substantially impeded by state borders. We revisit this finding with improved data. We show that much intra-national home bias can be explained by wholesaling activity. Shipments by wholesalers are much more localized within states than shipments from manufacturing establishments. Controlling for relative prices and the use of actual, rather than imputed, shipment distances also reduces home bias estimates.

The Trade Reducing Effects of Market Power in International Shipping

Developing countries pay substantially higher transportation costs than developed nations, which leads to less trade and perhaps lower incomes. This paper investigates price discrimination in the shipping industry and the role it plays in determining transportation costs. In the presence of market power, shipping prices depend on the demand characteristics of goods being traded. We show theoretically and estimate empirically that shipping firms charge higher prices when transporting goods with higher product prices, lower import demand elasticities, and higher tariffs, and when facing fewer competitors on a trade route. These characteristics explain more variation in shipping prices than do conventional proxies such as distance, and significantly contribute to the higher shipping prices facing the developing world. Markups increase shipping prices by at least 83 percent for the mean shipment in Latin American imports. Our findings are also important for evaluating the impact of tariff liberalization. Shipping firms decrease prices by 1-2 percent for every 1 percent reduction in tariffs.

Vertical specialization and the changing nature of world trade

A major feature of globalization has been the enormous increase in international flows of goods and services: countries are now trading much more with each other. In this article, the authors demonstrate the greater role vertical specialization is playing in these increased flows. Vertical specialization occurs when a country uses imported intermediate parts to create a good it later exports--that is, the country links sequentially with other countries to produce a final good. Deriving evidence from four case studies as well as OECD input-output tables, the authors reveal that vertical specialization has accounted for a large and increasing share of international trade over the last several decades. They also note that because the trends encouraging vertical specialization--lower trade barriers and improvements in transportation and communications technologies--are likely to continue, this type of international trade should become even more prevalent in the next century.International trade

Explaining Import Variety and Quality: The Role of the Income Distribution

We examine a generalized version of Flam and Helpman’s (1987) model of vertical differentiation that maps cross-country differences in income distributions to variations in import variety and price distributions. The theoretical predictions are examined and confirmed using micro data on income from the Luxemburg Income Study for 30 countries over 20 years. The pairs of importers whose income distributions look more similar have more export partners in common and more similar import price distributions. Similarly, the importers whose income distributions look more like the world buy from more exporters and have import price distributions that look more like the world.

How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?

Computable General Equilibrium models, widely used for the analysis of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) are often criticized for having poor econometric foundations. This paper improves the linkage between econometric estimates of key parameters and their usage in CGE analysis in order to better evaluate the likely outcome of a FTA for the Americas. Our econometric work focuses on estimation of the elasticity of substitution among imports from different countries, which is especially critical for evaluating the positive and normative outcomes of FTAs. We match the data in the econometric exercise to the policy experiment at hand. Then we sample from the distribution of parameter values given by our econometric estimates in order to generate a distribution of model results, from which we can construct confidence intervals. We conclude that there is great potential for combining econometric work with CGE-based policy analysis in order to produce a richer set of results that are likely to prove more satisfying to the sophisticated policy maker.

Hedging Price Volatility Using Fast Transport

Purchasing goods from distant locations introduces a significant lag between when a product is shipped and when it arrives. This is problematic for firms facing volatile demand, who must place orders before knowing the resolution of demand uncertainty. We provide a model in which airplanes bring producers and consumers together in time. Fast transport allows firms to respond quickly to favorable demand realizations and to limit the risk of unprofitably large quantities during low demand periods. Fast transport thus provides firms with a real option to smooth demand volatility. The model predicts that the likelihood and extent to which firms employ air shipments is increasing in the volatility of demand they face, decreasing in the air premium they must pay, and increasing in the contemporaneous realization of demand. We confirm all three conjectures using detailed US import data. We provide simple calculations of the option value associated with fast transport and relate it to variation in goods characteristics, technological change, and policies that liberalize trade in air services.

The Wage Effects of Offshoring: Evidence from Danish Matched Worker-Firm Data

We estimate how offshoring and exporting affect wages by skill type. Our data match the population of Danish workers to the universe of private-sector Danish firms, whose trade flows are broken down by product and origin and destination countries. Our data reveal new stylized facts about offshoring activities at the firm level, and allow us to both condition our identification on within-job-spell changes and construct instruments for offshoring and exporting that are time varying and uncorrelated with the wage setting of the firm. We find that within job spells, (1) offshoring tends to increase the high-skilled wage and decrease the low-skilled wage; (2) exporting tends to increase the wages of all skill types; (3) the net wage effect of trade varies substantially across workers of the same skill type; and (4) conditional on skill, the wage effect of offshoring exhibits additional variation depending on task characteristics. We then track the outcomes for workers after a job spell and find that those displaced from offshoring firms suffer greater earnings losses than other displaced workers, and that low-skilled workers suffer greater and more persistent earnings losses than high-skilled workers.